Análise econométrica da taxa de lucro dos Estados Unidos entre 1963 e 2008 : aplicações de modelos VEC

Abstract

O objetivo geral desta dissertação é compreender como as variações da Taxa de Lucro dos EUA foram determinadas entre 1963 e 2008. Por isso faz-se necessário identificar as variáveis que afetam a Taxa de Lucro, buscar dados de variáveis proxy e especificar e estimar modelos econométricos. Por constatar-se causalidade mútua entre a Taxa de Lucro e as variáveis que a afetam, optou-se por estimar modelos VEC, os quais permitiram analisar os coeficientes de curto e longo prazo, o tempo necessário para ajuste completo das variáveis e as funções impulso-resposta para compreender as relações da Taxa de Lucro com as variáveis que a afetam. Os resultados do modelo VEC são novos em relação a Basu (2010), Shaikh (1991, 2010), Cockshott, Cottrell e Taraddinov (2009), e Duménil e Lévy (1993, 2002).

The overall objective of this dissertation is to understand the determinants of variations in the U.S. economy Rate of Profit between 1963 and 2008. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the variables that affect the rate of profit, select appropriate proxies, and specify and estimate suitable econometric models. Due to mutual causality between the profit rate and the variables that affect it, VEC models were estimated. This allowed analyzing the short and long term coefficients, the time required for full adjustment of the variables, and functions impulse-response in order to understand the relationships involving the Profit Rate and the variables that influence it. With basis on VEC models, some conclusions were inferred about the variations in the rate of profit, and these results were compared with known authors. In general, the results of VEC are new compared to Basu (2010), Shaikh (1991, 2010), Cockshott, Cottrell and Taraddinov (2009), and Duménil and Lévy (1993, 2002).