Electrical fire risk indexing using fuzzy Petri nets

Abstract

Electrical fires are a significant cause of dwelling fires, but the existing information on electrical fires is often vague and imprecise, making it challenging to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method. To address this problem, this paper proposes a risk assessment method based on Fuzzy Petri nets (FPNs), a modeling tool that is suitable for complex systems under uncertainty. This approach allows for modeling various relationships between risk factors and their respective importance, supplying a flexible and comprehensive way to perform risk assessment. The proposed method involves responding to a yes/no questionnaire based on code recommendations, which allows for the prediction of the failure mode response. Based on the simulation results, it can be evaluated the overall risk, determined the relevance of each electrical issue in a residential distribution system, or assessed the impact of electrical installation improvements and alterations on safety. Despite the complexity of failure modes modeling, this approach offered a practical and straightforward means of identifying potential electrical fire risks.