The electoral support for Law and Order candidates : violence and local state capacities

Abstract

What motivates voters to support candidates with backgrounds in public security for Brazil’s National Congress, the so-called Law & Order (L&O) politicians? The 2018 elections witnessed a surge in parliamentarians from police and military backgrounds and the election of a president closely aligned with this agenda. We explore whether this trend correlates with municipal-level violence indicators and the presence of municipal capacity in the security sector, employing various regression models that account for socioeconomic, demographic, political, and geographic factors. Our findings from the additive model reveal a negative association between the level of violence and votes for L&O candidates. This suggests a potential disconnection between fear, victimization, and support for repressive policies, while also indicating that local capacity in the security sector tend to enhance L&O candidates’ performance. However, our model incorporating the interaction between both variables uncovers that violence exacerbates the negative impact on L&O voting when the city has capacity in the security sector. This may reflect a municipal-level preference for preventive measures, particularly in more violent areas, which contrasts with the generally repressive stance of L&O candidates.