Plasma GFAP for populational enrichment of clinical trials in preclinical Alzheimer's disease

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Cognitively unimpaired (CU) amyloid beta (Aβ)+ individuals with elevated plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have an increased risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related progression. We tested the utility of plasma GFAP for population enrichment CU populations in clinical trials. METHODS: We estimated longitudinal progression, effect size, and costs of hypothetical clinical trials designed to test an estimated 25% drug effect on reducing tau positron emission tomography (PET) accumulation in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and temporal neocortical region (NEO-T). RESULTS CU GFAP+/Aβ+ individuals present an increased annual rate of change and effect size in tau PETMTL and tau PETNEO-T compared to the other groups. An enrichment strategy selecting CU GFAP+/Aβ+ individuals would require a smaller sample size (≈ 57% reduction) and fewer Aβ PET scans (≈ 74% reduction) than trials enriched with Aβ PET alone, reducing total clinical trial costs by up to 64%. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that clinical trials focusing on preclinical AD recruiting Aβ+ individuals with elevated GFAP levels would improve cost effectiveness.