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dc.contributor.authorPreussler, Athos Prates da Silveirapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorPortugal, Marcelo Savinopt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2010-08-27T04:18:44Zpt_BR
dc.date.issued2003pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn0102-9924pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10183/25308pt_BR
dc.description.abstractThe political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on rhacroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we wifl use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government.pt_BR
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoporpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofAnálise econômica. Porto Alegre. Vol. 21, n. 40 (set. 2003), p. 179-205pt_BR
dc.rightsOpen Accessen
dc.subjectPolitical business cycleen
dc.subjectCiclo econômicopt_BR
dc.subjectPolitical economyen
dc.subjectPolítica econômicapt_BR
dc.subjectBrasilpt_BR
dc.subjectEconomic policyen
dc.titleUm estudo empírico dos ciclos político-econômicos no Brasilpt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de periódicopt_BR
dc.identifier.nrb000386985pt_BR
dc.type.originNacionalpt_BR


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