Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil
dc.contributor.author | Müller, Gabriel Cardozo | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Ferreira, Leonardo Souto | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Campos, Felipe Ernesto Mesias | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Borges, Marcelo Eduardo | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Almeida, Gabriel Berg de | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Lyra, Silas Poloni | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Simon, Lorena Mendes | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Bagattini, Ângela Maria | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Rosa, Michelle Quarti Machado da | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Diniz Filho, José Alexandre Felizola | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Kraenkel, Roberto André | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Coutinho, Renato Mendes | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Camey, Suzi Alves | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Kuchenbecker, Ricardo de Souza | pt_BR |
dc.contributor.author | Toscano, Cristiana Maria | pt_BR |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-12-09T05:00:11Z | pt_BR |
dc.date.issued | 2022 | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.issn | 2667-193X | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10183/252587 | pt_BR |
dc.description.abstract | Background Developing countries have experienced significant COVID-19 disease burden. With the emergence of new variants, particularly omicron, the disease burden in children has increased. When the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in children aged 5–11 years of age, very few countries recommended vaccination due to limited risk-benefit evidence for vaccination of this population. In Brazil, ranking second in the global COVID-19 death toll, the childhood COVID-19 disease burden increased significantly in early 2022. This prompted a risk-benefit assessment of the introduction and scaling-up of COVID-19 vaccination of children. Methods To estimate the potential impact of vaccinating children aged 5–11 years with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine in the context of omicron dominance, we developed a discrete-time SEIR-like model stratified in age groups, considering a three-month time horizon. We considered three scenarios: No vaccination, slow, and maximum vaccination paces. In each scenario, we estimated the potential reduction in total COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, hospitalization costs, and potential years of life lost, considering the absence of vaccination as the base-case scenario. Findings We estimated that vaccinating at a maximum pace could prevent, between mid-January and April 2022, about 26,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and 4200 deaths in all age groups; of which 5400 hospitalizations and 410 deaths in children aged 5–11 years. Continuing vaccination at a slow/current pace would prevent 1450 deaths and 9700 COVID-19 hospitalizations in all age groups in this same time period; of which 180 deaths and 2390 hospitalizations in children only. Interpretation Maximum vaccination of children results in a significant reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths and should be enforced in developing countries with significant disease incidence in children. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | pt_BR |
dc.language.iso | eng | pt_BR |
dc.relation.ispartof | The Lancet Regional Health - Americas. Oxford. Vol. 17, (Jan. 2023), art. 100396 [8 p.] | pt_BR |
dc.rights | Open Access | en |
dc.subject | COVID-19 : Imunologia | pt_BR |
dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 variants | en |
dc.subject | COVID-19 (Doença) | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Vacinação : Criança | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Vacinação : Covid | pt_BR |
dc.subject | SARS-CoV-2 | pt_BR |
dc.subject | Modelos estatísticos | pt_BR |
dc.title | Modeling the impact of child vaccination (5–11 y) on overall COVID-19 related hospitalizations and mortality in a context of omicron variant predominance and different vaccination coverage paces in Brazil | pt_BR |
dc.type | Artigo de periódico | pt_BR |
dc.identifier.nrb | 001155759 | pt_BR |
dc.type.origin | Estrangeiro | pt_BR |
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