Application of the concept of terminal value in the analysis of projects based on renewable energy

Abstract

Projects for energy supply based on the exploitation of renewable energy have a very predictable cash flow. The initial costs are usually high, with the acqui-sition of technologically evolving equipment. However, maintenance costs are relatively low and easily predictable. Likewise, operating costs are often very low as there is no need to buy inputs. Power storage devices are often short-lived and contribute to a relative cost increase. At the same time, these projects are often not approved because they are directly compared to projects based on non-renewable resources, with cash flows that may not be so easily predictable and with much lower start-up costs. Fossil fuels have hardly pre-dictable costs, established by non-technical criteria and related to geopolitical issues. In addition, their operating costs are usually very high, precisely be-cause of the need to purchase fossil fuels. This paper proposes the calculation of terminal value in cash flows of power generation projects and its applica-tion for feasibility analysis of projects based on renewable resources. The proposed method suggests the calculation of terminal value as the moving av-erage calculated for five-year intervals with constant growth rate of 5%. This method also encourages the inclusion in the cash flow of annual values that add up to the end of the analysis period the sufficient value to renew the sys-tem components at the end of the usual analysis period of 20 - 25 years. The application of the proposed method to a diesel wind system simulated with the well-known Homer software indicates the modification of the results of the Homer with the preference for systems with greater wind penetration in-stead of the systems with greater consumption of fossil fuels.